Q4 saw a 9% y-o-y fall to 301t, bringing the annual supply of recycled gold to 1,150t. Central bank buying rebounded and developed markets re-joined the fray. Data for each year as of the 4th quarter, except for 2022. This was in good part linked to Q4 demand, which at 713t saw the strongest quarterly jewellery consumption since Q2 2013. But if mine production is going to be sustained at current levels, the industry is probably going to need some new, large mines soon. During different economic regimes, different sectors outperform others. No central bank is planning to decrease its Advanced users can use our Python/R/Matlab packages. Want the lowdown on European markets? The total of mine production, net producer hedging and recycling. Accessed March 18, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/929799/gold-holdings-in-germany/, World Gold Council. COVID-19 interruptions are no longer a major factor. Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council, Annual jewellery consumption rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, boosted by Q4 sprint finish. Similarly, when excluding the impact of Massawa, the net reduction in reserves year-on-year is approximately 2%. Additionally, as the impact of COVID on the industry continues to retreat, demand for new devices and infrastructure to support home working is likely to slow. A macroeconomic indicator is in an uptrend when last value is higher than its twelve month moving average and its twelve month moving average slope is positive (last twelve month moving average is higher than the previous months twelve month moving average) Amongst the operating sites, 2.2 million ounces were also added to proven and probable reserves to partially offset production depletion. GlobalFinancial Risk levels Trend change is assumed when a specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more. However, our central banks survey indicates a similarly positive inclination towards gold in 2022 as in 2021. Fabrication is the first transformation of gold bullion into a semi-finished or finished product. The World Gold Council is the market development organization for the gold industry. Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM as of 30 December 2021. For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. In addition, rising policy rates are not exactly uncharted waters, but the experience from 2018-2019 suggests that the economy is more sensitive to higher rates given that debt levels are substantially higher. The majorfinancial marketswhich affect the rest of the other financial assets are: 2021 demand for jewellery in Vietnam was 12t, 11% higher than the 2020 figure of 11t. The figure below shows which sectors tend to outperform and underperform during different economic cycles. The broad range of buying in 2021 has shown there is still significant appetite for gold as a reserve asset. To achieve this, we have made some improvements to the way that we present the demand and supply data in Gold Demand Trends. "Total Weight of Gold Holdings in Germany from 2000 to 3rd Quarter 2022 (in Metric Tons). September 30, 2022. The UAE led with a 57% increase in annual demand to 34t. With the easing of lockdown restrictions from June onwards and continued successful roll out of the vaccination program, Indias economy recovered in H2 2021. Label. Canadian production increased 19t on production expansions and recovery from fire-related disruptions. You will not see all the features of this website. The Middle East region saw a third consecutive decline in annual bar and coin demand, to 55t (-4%). World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates. And golds relative stability throughout the second half reflects this combination of subsiding ETF outflows and strength in the consumer and central bank elements of demand. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Global annual demand by sector (World Gold Council), Sources: Metals Focus, World Gold Council; Disclaimer. India was a key driver in Q4, but jewellery demand in markets across the globe almost without exception was stronger y-o-y. Thailand, which last increased its gold reserves in 2017, was the largest buyer in 2021. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. This gold reserve data compiled using IMF IFS statistics tracks central banks reported purchases and sales along with gold as a percentage of their EU Slips in Bid to Keep Pace With US, China in Clean-Tech Race, In a Manhattan Condo, Terra Cotta Marks an Art Deco Revival, How US Sister Cities Have Supported Their Counterparts in Ukraine, Chicago Mayor Frontrunner Targets Crime, Taxes to Court Business, Crypto Winter Meets Banking Crisis: A Tale of Three Banks(Podcast), Princeton Universitys Blockchain Initiative, One Year Later (Podcast), NFT Fans Say2023 Is Looking Up After Rocky 2022 (Podcast). Rapper, chef and author Action Bronson takes us on a journey from his early days at culinary school, to releasing critically acclaimed albums, to writing books, starring in TV shows and building an iconic brand around his favorite interests. The table has current values for Gold Reserves, previous releases, historical highs and record World Gold Council does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information and does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information. Central bank demand by country in H1 2021*, Sources: In September 2020 the central bank shifted to more actively trading gold to maintain its gold reserves at a more optimal level of around 10% of total reserves. Note the gold-for-gold exchange is not counted as recycling supply in our methodology. Japan saw a return to quarterly net disinvestment in Q4, wiping out the 4t bought to the end of Q3 2021. In Q4, total investment more than doubled y-o-y as ETF outflows were sharply lower than in Q4 2020, while bar and coin demand maintained its momentum. Everything else experiences big volatility and often large losses. Gold mining companies reduced aggregate hedging positions in three of the four quarters of 2021, resulting in full-year net de-hedging of 44t. The year ended much as it began, with nominal interest rates and inflation jockeying for position as the key driver of gold. There are periods where correlations between financial assets breakdown and where economic data are disconnected fromfinancial marketsbut the core market logic is described below. That means momentum is 0. To get a snapshot of your countrys economic health, the most important macroeconomic and financial indicators are the countrys 1. (September 30, 2022). Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Full-year gold demand in the technology sector grew by 9% to 330t, with y-o-y growth seen in all four quarters, A buoyant electronics sector bounced back from the 2020 impact of the pandemic, growing 9% to 272t. Central banks accumulated 463t of gold in 2021, 82% higher than the 2020 total and lifting global reserves to a near 30-year high. The direction of ETFs will largely depend on which factor is stronger: demand for gold as a hedge, in light of persistent inflation and potential COVID-related market pullbacks, or further reduction in holdings in light of rising nominal interest rates. MacroVar trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. 10. Demand for gold in technology staged a rapid recovery in 2021. The degree of intervention depends on the countrys fundamentals. Having two different measures of gold demand in the same data model could create confusion. While several funds allow other holdings such as cash, derivatives or other precious metals, we monitor only those funds investing at least 90% in physical gold and appropriately adjust their reported assets to estimate physical holdings only. For more), credit markets using individual Credit Default Swaps of specific companies and IBOXX corporate bond indices, news flow based on feeds from reliable finance news sources and industry specific factors based on MacroVar statistical Models and a broad range of sector specific related macroeconomic factors based on PMI & ESI Surveys and other factors like Building Permits. Egypt reported a 56% increase after Sukari recovered from a pit stability problem that occurred in Q4 2020, and Kyrgyzstan is believed to have increased mine production from Kumtor due to the processing of higher grades although we are seeing less information on this mines performance following its seizure by the state. Fourth quarter demand was 10% lower y-o-y at 4t. and Scrap, Open Currently, you are using a shared account. For more information, refer here. Fabrication of gold coins without a face value, produced by both private and official/national mints. Emerging and developed market central banks gold reserves (World Gold Council). Some of this will likely wane in 2022 but economic growth should remain a catalyst for solid demand. The early timing of the 2022 Lunar New Year holiday also helped boost demand before year-end. MacroVar risk management is a quantitative model which monitors critical financial markets and warns investors when financial risk is rising quickly. Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council. In March, Hungary bought 63t of gold, tripling its gold reserves from 31.5t to 94.5t, citing the pandemic, growing debt levels and inflation as key reasons for its purchase. If credit is used to purchase productive resources, it helps economic growth and income. Interest in gold bars and coins was reportedly almost entirely one-way, with selling back activity very limited. Country-level gross sales and purchases based on available IMF IFS and respective central bank data at time of publication. And, as we noted in a recent blogpost, further rate cuts designed to cushion Chinas economy from the recent growth slowdown, potential persistent inflationary pressure and a possible devaluation in the local currency could all bode well for Chinas bar and coin investment over the year ahead. As per the IMF IFS database back to December 1950. Over time, hedging activity does not generate a net change in the supply of gold. Calculations of the return for the specific timeframe, 2. Bar demand was 50% higher for the full year at 804t, while official coin demand slipped marginally to 291t. Annual net purchases by central banks in tonnes (World Gold Council). This is accomplished by monitoring leading macroeconomic indicators for each country like manufacturing, services PMI and other business and consumer confidence indicators. Uae led with a 57 % increase in annual bar and coin demand slipped marginally to.. 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